Betting successfully isn’t easy. Bookmakers are experts at stacking the odds in their favor, and many skilled individuals are constantly trying to outwit them. However, with the right strategies, you can improve your chances of making a profit—or at least minimize your losses. If you’re tired of losing £20 on accumulators every weekend, read on to discover advanced techniques that can make a difference.

Understanding Value Betting

Value betting focuses on identifying bets where the odds provided by the bookmaker underestimate the actual probability of an event occurring. Unlike simply trying to pick a winner, value betting seeks to exploit discrepancies between the bookmaker’s implied probability and your calculated probability.

For example, a favorite with short odds can still offer value if the bookmaker has underestimated their chances of winning. Similarly, a longshot priced at 10/1 might represent value if you believe their real probability of success is higher than the implied odds suggest.

The cornerstone of value betting is implied probability—the percentage chance of an event happening as determined by the bookmaker’s odds.

Calculating Implied Probability

• Decimal Odds: Divide 1 by the odds. For example, if Leeds has odds of 3.50 to beat Tottenham, the calculation is 1÷3.50=0.2851 \div 3.50 = 0.2851÷3.50=0.285, or 28.5%.
• Fractional Odds: Divide the denominator by the sum of the numerator and denominator. For 10/1 odds, 1÷(10+1)=0.091 \div (10 + 1) = 0.091÷(10+1)=0.09, or 9%.

Overcoming Bookmakers’ Margins

Bookmakers include a profit margin in their odds, often resulting in probabilities exceeding 100%. For instance, if “both teams to score” odds imply a 105% total probability, that extra 5% is their edge. Value betting aims to reverse this advantage by finding bets where the implied probability is lower than your calculated probability.

Consider Burnley priced at 10/1 to beat Arsenal. With a 9% implied probability, you might estimate the true probability as 15% due to factors like injuries or historical performance. Betting in such scenarios offers a long-term edge, even if individual bets often lose.

Poisson Distribution: A Predictive Tool

For those who enjoy mathematical precision, the Poisson distribution can help predict scorelines based on historical averages. For instance, a team averaging 1.7 goals per game has the following probabilities for their next match:

• 0 goals: 18%
• 1 goal: 31%
• 2 goals: 26%
• 3 goals: 15%

This method refines predictions and highlights probabilities often missed by bookmakers.

The Pros and Cons of Accumulators

Accumulators, or “accas,” combine multiple bets into a single wager, offering higher potential payouts. However, they also amplify the bookmaker’s margin. For instance, combining four bets with individual margins of 4%, 3%, 5%, and 2% results in a total margin of 14%.

To succeed with accumulators, ensure each selection offers value. Otherwise, the compounded margins can erode your edge.

Following Tipsters for Success

If crunching numbers isn’t your style, following reputable tipsters can be an effective alternative. Look for tipsters with:

• Proven Track Records: Reliable platforms like KickOff track bets and rank tipsters based on verified profits.
• Matching Strategies: Select tipsters whose risk tolerance and betting approach align with your preferences.

Leveraging KickOff’s Algorithm

KickOff’s algorithm evaluates events to predict probabilities. By comparing these with bookmakers’ odds, you can identify value bets. For example, if the algorithm predicts a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals in a game while the bookmaker’s odds suggest a 69% chance, the bet offers value.

Final Thoughts

Success in betting requires a disciplined approach, continuous analysis, and an understanding of advanced strategies. Whether you use tools like the Poisson distribution, follow expert tipsters, or rely on algorithms, the key lies in making informed decisions and tracking your results over time.